But for pollsters conducting surveys at the state or local level, especially in areas where the mismatch rate is high, out-of-area cellphone numbers are a serious concern because self-reported location is typically not available when selecting the sample of numbers to call. If the goal is then to report survey findings by geography, researchers use respondents’ self-reported locations based on ZIP code. adults regardless of any internal mismatch across cities and states. By dialing nationwide, researchers reach the target population of U.S. For national polls, including nearly all those conducted by Pew Research Center, it is not a problem. This may be an underestimation of this phenomenon, especially as more people acquire cellphones and as it becomes the norm to keep them for a longer period of time and retain the same number when moving.ĭetermining how big of a problem out-of-area cellphone numbers are for pollsters entirely depends on the geographic population pollsters are trying to target. It was necessary to go back to 2013 to amass enough data to report results at the state level. 917-593-2xxx, which are assigned according to the location where the phone was purchased. A cellphone’s location is based on its area code, exchange and thousand-block, e.g. To determine the share of geographic mismatch, researchers compared respondents’ self-reported ZIP code with the location associated with their cellphone number. The pooled data consist of more than 32,000 cellphone respondents 1 including nearly 18,000 respondents who do not have a landline in their home. These results are based on an analysis of 30 national political surveys conducted by Pew Research Center from 2013 to 2015. In Michigan, for example, just 5% of adults with cellphones have an out-of-state number. In some parts of the country, by contrast, this is almost a nonissue. At the state level, the trend is most pronounced in Washington, D.C., where 55% of residents with a cellphone have a number from outside the District. While some technical solutions are in the works, there is presently no surefire way to capture people with out-of-state or out-of-area numbers in sub-national polls. This trend has become a headache for researchers doing state- and local-level telephone polling. For urban dwellers, four-in-ten have a number that doesn’t match the city where they live. For example, a potential survey respondent may live in Maryland but have a cellphone with a New York area code. adults have a cellphone number that doesn’t match the state where they actually live. The net result, according to new Pew Research Center estimates, is that 10% of U.S. Others have not moved but bought their cellphone in a different state.
And they quite often take their cellphone numbers with them.
Each year about 36 million Americans move residences, according to the Census Bureau.
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